Hey, I'm Steve Volkers with Steve Volkers Group in Grand Rapids, Michigan. A small local brokerage. And we are going to start just talking monthly about market data. So I use a lot of market data when I'm talking at listing appointments, buyer appointments, and just within our brokerage with our agents.

Kevin, our marketing guru is starting to throw together this, uh, real estate market data package. You can get all the data online and Kevin will probably throw up a link. But what we're going to do is just drop this once. With the newest data. And then I'm just going to do my overview of what I think is happening within the market.

Right. So I want to, just to dive right in today on some of these graphs that I find interesting and give you sort of the overview. I am old. So at some point, I'm going to remove my glasses like this up there so I can read, so I should probably get bifocals or something. Kevin, I don't know. But anyways, market data, Let's talk about lack of inventory, which has been the conversation altogether.

And the graphs are just phenomenal to show that situation. So this year alone, just January and February is data. Um, we are basically 200 units. Closed in February than we were last year. So last year we closed a total of 711 units within our association. And this year we've only show a sold 516 units. That's a significant amount of unit loss, but, um, the next one is.

Closed transactions, which Kevin got here broke down since 2018. And what we actually see is that trend started four months ago. So October of last year, 2021, we were down 140 units. Then, uh, November, we were down 211 units. Then at the end of the year, last year, we were 400 units off. All of those came in three months. And now we're seeing that in January and February. So we're five months in this pattern of being a hundred to 200 units off of traditional sales within the MLS, which everybody is feeling that pinch, right. When you're showing one of the graphs that I always. Fascinating that Kevin keeps on bringing up with me is the amount of showings per listing.

Right? So when you have less listings than everybody is looking at, no matter what it is out there, cause there's so few to look at. So we're way up on showing. Some of that I think is just the way that agents are now interacting with the market where they're listing on Wednesday or Thursday and no offers due till Monday or Tuesday to allow the buyer pool, to have time to look at it, maybe do a pre-inspection whatever.

So that we're getting a little bit more showing activity that we traditionally would years ago were a, B four or five showings. And then an offer would come in or eight showings and an offer would come in, or we would always say, A number of years ago. Well, if you've got 10 showings and no one seen it, now it's time to adjust price down.

Right. Can you remember the last time we talked as agents about adjusting the praise down based on the no activity, very rarely is that occurring. So just, um, the data will drop. I think it's just really fast. Obviously your today volume of last year's volume is way up, but we are now seeing volume and units combined being down.

So last year we were up, um, couple of hundred thousand or a couple of million, actually, we were up, uh, let's see about 4 million from the year previous. But we are well off of it now for February. So we are down, uh, about that 4 million mark now for February. So if we're going to have volume and units get anywhere close to next year, there's going to have to be a pretty big race forward.

The issue with the race that you're going to see is that supply issue is my gut tells me and I use my gut quite a bit is because of new concerns. So basically, if you don't remember last may, we had a spike and lumber cost, right. A supply issue with OSB, all of a sudden you're spending way too much money on lumber.

Right. Um, and it just stalled new construction. Some of the bigger builders could keep building. Cause they had contracts that last them a year or two years on their lumber costs. But the guy who's building five units or 10 or a little subdivision or a new condo project or whatever those got stalled because all of a sudden their lumber that they originally put in their port form of being ax grew by 40% and no longer could they build.

That unit anymore. So that inventory, my gut tells me some of this inventory shortage is based on new construction. So we're not seeing the new construction cause last may. Um, if you go may to October of this last year, you're six months in new constructions in a six month lag, it takes six months to put a footing in the ground to have somebody move into it.

That's on the fast you do a six month build. So six months happened and now then the shortage started happening for the last five months. Right? Prices did come down now they're right back up to where they almost were last year are starting to increase to that amount. So we could have that same. So supply and demand.

My gut tells me it's always been an issue. The last five years, new construction is where it really hurt us. So would not new construction builds, then we don't have that move up market. Right? So that new construction is typically the 500 on bobbin west Michigan price point. Um, or there's some, maybe in the outskirts areas, Wayland door Sparta, that would be in the three hundreds that stuff's all $50,000 more.

If it even got built. So with lack of new construction, then that move up by, or that's moving from a small city house or their starter house trying to move to that next level or someone that's trying to move out of their starter house or their, a nicer house down into a new build. Condo cannot find that inventory, which has just got everyone stuck, not including also the interest rate conversation that's happened over the last month.

Where now, not only can they not find the supply, the supply is more expensive because of interest rates. And they've already locked in a very low interest rate at two and a half or 3% on their fixed income. If they're starting to retire and then to move, doesn't really financially make sense. So, um, we're kind of in the supply demand thing that I don't think is going to change for the next couple of years, but it definitely be interesting over the next couple of months to see.

Do bill have, do builders have inventory that they're going to start releasing and releasing that will that start helping the data in, uh, open up the market? Or are we going to be struggling with. Low units for a very long time. So that's my thoughts. Feel free to give me yours in the comments below we'll, uh, dump this on all the social media channels, but feel free to find it@stevevolkersgroup.com and Kevin will have a little spot for you to get this downloaded material, right to you.

We're going to have a, like a little email blast, right Kev? That if you want to sign up for the email and just get this data, uh, each month we can drop it right to you. So thanks so much. I'm Steve Volkers. I know as long-winded, but I hope the information is of value to you. Have a good day.



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